Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment: Major benefit change could be coming next year
Social Security recipients will know next month how much their benefits will increase next year.
The annual announcement for the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) is set for Oct. 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The announcement will come after the final data on September’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is released. The COLA is determined by looking at the CPI-W for July, August and September 2026 and comparing it to the same quarter in 2025.
The difference between the two periods determines the new COLA.
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Major COLA increase?
Based on current estimates, the advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates the 2027 COLA will be 3.6%, the biggest increase in the past four years. If the COLA were announced today, the average monthly benefit would rise by $69.75, from $1,937 to $2,007.
While beneficiaries can expect a higher-than-usual increase, continued inflation – and higher Medicare premiums – will eat away at most of the change. From 2010 to 2019, the COLA (and inflation, as measured by the CPI-W) averaged approximately 1.4 percent. From 2020 to 2025, it averaged 3.7 percent.
Shannon Benton, TSCL’s Executive Director, said inflation continues to erode any increases seniors receive.
“Seniors don’t experience inflation as a percentage on a chart. They experience it at the grocery store, at the pharmacy, in their insurance premiums and when they pay the rent,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a statement. “That’s why the size of the COLA matters, but so does how accurately it reflects their real-world expenses.”
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“Frankly, it’s infuriating that seniors must wait for a COLA to catch up with prices that have already driven up their grocery bills, housing costs, healthcare expenses and insurance premiums. A higher COLA is welcome, but seniors shouldn’t have to lose purchasing power year after year before Washington acknowledges what they’re experiencing,” she added.
The COLA was 2.8% in 2026, 2.5% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2024. It was 8.7% in 2023, as post-COVID inflation reached its peak.
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