S&P 500 Forecast: Bulls Defend 7,100 as AI Earnings Face Their Show-Me Moment
U.S. housing starts chart showing April 2026 actual above forecast
Source: TradingView
AI Earnings Take the Wheel
Now comes the real test.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta report after the close, with Apple due Thursday. These stocks are not just market leaders. They are the market’s weight room. Together, the five mega-cap names represent roughly 24% of the S&P 500, so their earnings will likely decide whether the index breaks back toward 7,220 or spends more time chopping above 7,100.
The market wants proof now. AI capex alone won’t do it. Investors want margins, revenue conversion, and cash-flow leverage.
Microsoft and Apple look better positioned on profitability. Alphabet and Amazon face tougher questions around infrastructure spending. Meta is more nuanced, with near-term margin pressure but a potentially better full-year AI story. If the earnings calls deliver, the current pullback could look like a clean pause before another leg higher. If they don’t, SPX probably retests the lower end of the support band.
Renko Chart Shows a Bullish Reset
The 12-brick Renko shows a bullish market taking a breath.
Price is sitting near 7,126–7,127, just above the 7,100 support zone and well above the 500-SMA. That spread is important. The broader trend remains positive, even though short-term momentum has cooled.
The recent red bricks after the push above 7,200 show profit-taking, not panic. RSI is near 46, which is soft but not washed out. The Z-Score SMA near -0.4 confirms the same thing. A mild reset, not a downside impulse.
Bulls are defending 7,100, not waiting for some deeper washout. A quick recovery above 7,150 would strengthen the case for another run at 7,185–7,220. A break below 7,100 would expose 7,086, then 7,000, but the current structure still favors buyers while that zone holds.