[Today's Stock Market] Down 880 yen in 2 days. But the nature of the decline is different between yesterday and today
🦉Today’s news,
🦉”Here is today’s news.
・The Nikkei Stock Average fell for the second consecutive day, down 396 yen to 65,481 yen
・At one point, it fell by more than 1,100 yen
・The TOPIX fell 1.72%, a larger decline than the Nikkei
・About 87% of stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market declined
・Out of 33 industry sectors, only Electric Appliances rose
・Today was the ex-dividend date for the end of September”
🐣”It went down yesterday, and it went down today…
What is happening?”
🐻”It has fallen for two days in a row, but the nature of the decline is quite different between yesterday and today”
📉 Down about 880 yen in 2 days
The Nikkei Stock Average was 66,364 yen last Friday.
Yesterday, the 28th, it fell 486 yen to 65,877 yen.
And today, the 29th, it fell 396 yen to 65,481 yen.
It has fallen about 880 yen over two trading days.
🐣”So, does that mean Japanese stocks have suddenly become weak?”
🐻”It’s too early to judge that based on the numbers alone.
Let’s look at yesterday and today separately”
🔴 Yesterday was ‘a reaction to consecutive gains and profit-taking’
First, yesterday, the 28th.
The Nikkei Stock Average rose from the morning, and was bought up to 67,034 yen at one point.
However, it lost momentum all at once from there.
The closing price was 65,877 yen.
It fell 1,157 yen from its high to its close, ending at the day’s low.
In addition to profit-taking following recent gains, the rise in domestic interest rates and the decline in South Korean stocks weighed on the market, and selling became more dominant as the day progressed.
🐻”Yesterday was a day where the flow changed completely after being bought in the morning, due to profit-taking and other factors”
🔵 Today was ‘ex-dividend’
And today, the 29th.
Today was the ex-dividend date for the end of September.
If you bought stocks by the final day with dividend rights yesterday, the 28th, you retain the right to receive this dividend even if you sell today.
On the other hand, if you buy stocks starting today, you cannot receive this dividend based on the end of September.
🐣”Did that also affect today’s stock price?”
🐻”That’s right.
Because dividend rights are lost, downward pressure is also placed on the index”
The market estimated that the downward pressure on the Nikkei Stock Average due to this ex-dividend was about 380 yen.
Today’s Nikkei Stock Average was down 396 yen.
However,
“it is not a simple matter of saying ‘396 yen minus 380 yen equals a real decline of 16 yen’.”
This is because actual stock prices also move based on supply and demand and market sentiment for the day.
Even so, it is worth remembering that today’s decline in the Nikkei included a significant special factor: the ex-dividend.
🐣”So even though it’s a decline of about 400 yen, the meaning is different from yesterday”
🐻”That’s exactly it.
It’s hard to tell if you only look at the index numbers”
🌏 It’s not just the ex-dividend
That said, today’s decline cannot be explained entirely by the ex-dividend.
In the US market the previous day, major stock indices fell due to uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East and rising long-term US interest rates.
Following that trend, selling occurred across a wide range of stocks in the Tokyo market from the morning today.
🐻 “It’s not just about the dividend drop today.
It means that the situation in the Middle East and interest rates were also on people’s minds.”
🔀 Yet, there are sectors that rose
Among the 33 TSE sectors today, only electric appliances rose.
32 sectors fell, and 1,350 out of 1,544 stocks on the TSE Prime market declined.
About 87% of stocks fell.
🐣 “The Nikkei 225 is down 0.60%, but the TOPIX is down 1.72%.”
🐻 “It means that a wider range of stocks fell today than the Nikkei 225 figure suggests.”
On the other hand, there was buying in some semiconductor manufacturing equipment stocks.
Tokyo Electron, Lasertec, Disco, SCREEN, and others rose.
In particular, Tokyo Electron provided significant support for the Nikkei 225.
🐣 Chick’s Question of the Day | Is it profitable to just get the dividend and sell?
🐣 “Then, wouldn’t it be better to buy on the final day with rights, get the right to receive the dividend, and sell the next day?”
🐻 “If it were that easy to make a profit, everyone would be doing it.”
On the ex-dividend date, the value of the lost dividend right is reflected in the stock’s reference price.
However, the actual stock price does not necessarily fall by the exact amount of the dividend.
Depending on the market sentiment and supply and demand for that day, it may fall more than that, or conversely, it may rise.
🐣 “So, it’s not just a matter of looking at the dividend and buying, right?”
🐻 “That’s right.
Is it a company you want to hold even after receiving the dividend?
It’s important to think that far ahead.”
There is no guarantee that the stock price will recover after the ex-dividend date.
That is why you need to check not only the dividend yield but also the company’s performance and its ability to sustain dividends.
♨️ Yugemaru’s Thoughts
The Nikkei 225 has fallen for two consecutive days.
But when I look into it, the content is quite different between yesterday and today.
Yesterday, it lost momentum after exceeding 67,000 yen in the morning.
Today, there was a special factor: the ex-dividend date.
Even on the same “day the Nikkei 225 fell,” there are quite a few things you can’t see if you only look at the numbers.
However, what concerned me today was that the TOPIX fell 1.72% and about 87% of the TSE Prime market declined.
Even though there was the impact of the ex-dividend date, it was a day of very broad selling.
And I’m still worried about the Middle East situation and interest rates.
I will be watching how Japanese stocks move from tomorrow onwards, now that the special factor of the ex-dividend date is gone.
Thank you for your hard work today ♨️
* This note is a place to enjoy investing as entertainment, so there is no intention to recommend specific stocks. However, for the sake of the format, the characters may sometimes make assertive statements. Please understand that those are the characters’ opinions and not my recommendations.
* This article was written on the night of September 29, 2026.