How High Can NVIDIA Go In 5 Years?

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been by far one of the best stocks to hold over the last several years. Surging demand for AI data center chips has caused sales of the company’s GPUs to skyrocket, leading to explosive growth and massive returns for investors.

The question now, though, is whether the future will be as good to NVIDIA as the past few years have been. Today, let’s take a look at the projections around NVIDIA and its market to see where the stock could end up by 2030.

Key Points

• NVIDIA’s AI chip sales could surpass $700B by 2030, fueled by 30%+ annual market growth.

• Rivals like AMD, Intel, and Big Tech are developing AI chips, while efficiency breakthroughs may impact demand.

• With 38% annual EPS growth, NVDA could triple in value by 2030, reaching $400+ per share.

How Is NVIDIA’s Market Expected to Develop?

Estimates for the size of the AI chip market by 2030 vary, but one thing almost everyone agrees on is the fact that the market is likely to continue expanding rapidly. NVIDIA is projected to reach up to $200 billion in data center revenue this year alone.

With the market for AI chips as a whole expected to grow at a rate of over 30% annually from now through 2030, this could result in NVIDIA generating revenues of $700 billion or more by the end of the decade if it can keep pace with market growth.

Needless to say, this would likely represent a best-case scenario in which AI investment continues at a blistering pace and NVIDIA fully retains its current market share.

While there’s little doubt that NVIDIA is likely to keep growing, the next five years could see the market change significantly. The first solid indicator of this came earlier this year when Chinese startup DeepSeek released a dramatically more efficient AI model. Using a fraction of the computing power necessary for other generative AI models, DeepSeek showed that improvements in efficiency could reduce the demand for cutting-edge chips in the years to come.

Even this shock, however, could actually have a silver lining for NVIDIA. Some analysts believe that vastly more efficient AI models could spur even more widespread adoption of AI. This, paradoxically, could increase data center demand instead of decreasing it.

While the jury is still out on whether DeepSeek and other efficiency optimizations in the AI world will negatively impact NVIDIA, it’s important to keep in mind how young and volatile the AI chip market still is.

NVIDIA has the edge when it comes to developing newer and better chips. By 2026, for instance, management plans to roll out a new GPU called Rubin that will take the place of its current Blackwell architecture. With a balance sheet rich in liquid reserves, NVIDIA is in an excellent position to stay ahead of the market by continuing to innovate.

Will Newcomers Challenge NVIDIA’s Dominance?

Another major question that could impact how NVIDIA shares are priced in five years is whether or not the company will retain its stranglehold on the market for leading AI chips. At the moment, NVIDIA accounts for about 85% of the AI chip market. With demand for chips heating up and enormous growth opportunities on the table, though, the company is facing an increasingly competitive environment.

Some of the most substantial competition actually comes from some of NVIDIA’s largest customers. Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft are all working on their own in-house chip projects. Additionally, NVIDIA faces competitive pressures from experienced chipmakers like AMD and Intel. AMD, in particular, may have a good competitive strategy by providing budget-friendly options for the mid-range market.

NVIDIA may also face some limited competition from younger startups. One prominent example of a startup hoping to take on NVIDIA is Cerebras Systems, a company that has developed an extremely large chip that can run top AI models at high speeds. Cerebras has filed for an IPO and could make waves among tech investors when it goes public.

At the end of the day, though, it seems extremely unlikely that NVIDIA’s market share will collapse in the coming five years. Thanks to its scale and efficiency, NVIDIA enjoys a considerable moat around its business. As such, the company is likely to remain the go-to for companies investing in cutting-edge chips for data centers.

What Do Analysts Project for NVIDIA?

In the coming 12 months, analysts foresee shares of NVDA hitting an average price target of about $172. Given the stock’s most recent price of $183.85, this implies an upside of around 24% over the next year.

More relevant to the question of where NVIDIA will be by 2030 is the fact that analysts expect its earnings per share (EPS) to keep expanding at a rate of roughly 38% per year for the next 3-5 years. Using the most recently available trailing 12-month EPS of $2.54 as of the end of Q3 2024, this would suggest earnings of around $12.70 in five years.

What Will NVIDIA Stock Be Worth in 2030?

Right now, NVIDIA shares trade at 54.6 times earnings and if the stock maintained this high multiple while growing earnings at the expected rate over the next five years, shares would end up just shy of $700. This scenario, however, is somewhat unlikely. As NVIDIA matures, there’s a good chance that its P/E and other valuation metrics will begin to compress somewhat.

Assuming a much more reasonable future multiple of 30x earnings, though, it’s entirely possible that we could see prices approaching $400 per share by the start of the next decade.

This would allow current shareholders to roughly triple the value of their positions. NVIDIA’s total market cap would also rise to a bit over $10 trillion under this set of assumptions.

While it’s impossible to tell exactly where a fast-growing company like NVIDIA will be so far into the future, the chances for continued strong returns seem high. Even with a more competitive landscape and the potential fallout of more efficient AI models being developed, NVIDIA’s position at the top of its market seems to be all but unassailable. As a company with a powerful moat in a fast-growing industry, NVIDIA seems likely to keep moving upward in the years to come.