Will This ETF 2x Before Year End?

In recent months, some of the most sophisticated investors on Wall Street have made a bold move by pouring hundreds of millions into BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

This isn’t just a passing trade but a conviction bet that Bitcoin’s best days may still be ahead and while still trading under $100,000 per coin, maybe they’re right?

Key Points

• Billionaire investors like Israel Englander, David Shaw, and Paul Tudor Jones have significantly increased their stakes in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust.

• AllianceBernstein forecast a potential 2x upside in Bitcoin with IBIT expected to mirror that price movement.

• The SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has opened the floodgates for institutional adoption, and IBIT stands out for its low fees, traditional brokerage compatibility.

Wall Street’s Smartest Money Is Buying IBIT

Millennium Management’s Israel Englander, a man known for rigorous risk control, boosted his IBIT stake by 27% last quarter, bringing his total to over 6.3 million shares. That makes it his third-largest holding, excluding options.

D.E. Shaw’s David Shaw took an even more aggressive approach, lifting his stake by 345%, to 7.4 million shares. And perhaps most notably, Paul Tudor Jones, a long-time Bitcoin bull, now counts IBIT as his single largest portfolio holding again, excluding options.

When investors with access to the best research, models, and deal flow in the world start increasing their exposure in unison, it’s rarely by coincidence.

A $200,000 Bitcoin? Two Major Firms Think So

Analysts at both AllianceBernstein now forecast Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, more than double its recent price. Their thesis is surprisingly straightforward that institutional demand is just getting started, and Bitcoin’s capped supply makes it uniquely positioned to benefit from rising inflation and fiat currency skepticism.

But here’s what most investors miss, if Bitcoin does hit $200,000, the value of IBIT should rise in lockstep, since it’s directly tied to spot Bitcoin prices, not futures or synthetic exposure.

Why Institutions Are Pouring In Now

Up until early 2024, institutional investors largely stayed on the sidelines when it came to crypto — not because they lacked conviction, but because of operational hurdles. Custody issues, exchange risks, and regulatory ambiguity made it a compliance headache.

That all changed with the SEC’s greenlighting of spot Bitcoin ETFs, including IBIT.

Since then, adoption has been faster than any ETF launch in history, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. The number of institutions disclosing Bitcoin holdings in their 13F filings has nearly doubled in just two quarters.

Bitcoin Is Now Easier Than Ever to Own

IBIT removes the traditional pain points of crypto investing. No digital wallet, no exchange account, no steep transaction fees. J

ust a clean, brokerage-account-compatible ETF with a 0.25% annual expense ratio, dramatically cheaper than Coinbase’s fees, which start at 0.4% to 0.6%.

Plus, BlackRock’s involvement has given IBIT a level of credibility and infrastructure support that most other crypto products simply can’t match. It’s not just easier but safer and institutionally backed.

The Risk and Reward Profile Investors Must Understand

Since May 2023, Bitcoin has returned over 240%, crushing gold and the S&P 500 by almost 5x and 6x respectively. But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Bitcoin dropped more than 25% from peak levels twice during that period, highlighting just how volatile the asset remains.

Still, for investors who can stomach the turbulence, the long-term thesis remains intact, a finite supply, rising demand, and a growing role in global asset allocation.

What Savvy Investors Are Doing Now

The world’s most sophisticated hedge funds aren’t waiting for perfect clarity, they’re positioning now, in size.

If you believe that digital assets will play a larger role in the future of finance, and you want exposure without the hassle, the iShares Bitcoin Trust may be the simplest, cleanest way to get in.

And if analysts are even close to right, doubling your money over the next 18 months isn’t just possible, it’s increasingly plausible.